GLP-1 receptor agonists represent a new generation of obesity medications with substantially greater weight-loss efficacy than previous treatments. This article explains how the calculator works, what the clinical trial data shows, and what to expect during and after treatment.
How GLP-1 Medications Produce Weight Loss
This calculator uses trial means as educational benchmarks and an illustrative trajectory between them. STEP 1 studied semaglutide 2.4 mg weekly for 68 weeks, with mean weight reduction of 14.9% versus 2.4% for placebo. SURMOUNT-1 studied tirzepatide for 72 weeks, reporting means of 15.0%, 19.5%, and 20.9% at 5, 10, and 15 mg. These studies differ in participants and protocol. The plotted interpolation and lifestyle adjustments are scenario assumptions, not a validated personal prediction.
Clinical Trial Data Behind the Projections
The weight-loss projections in this calculator are based directly on Phase 3 clinical trial results, which represent the most rigorous available evidence on these medications' efficacy. For semaglutide 2.4mg, the STEP 1 trial randomized 1,961 adults with obesity (BMI ≥30) or overweight with at least one comorbidity to once-weekly subcutaneous semaglutide or placebo over 68 weeks, all with lifestyle intervention. The semaglutide group lost a mean of 14.9% of body weight versus 2.4% in the placebo group. For tirzepatide, the SURMOUNT-1 trial enrolled 2,539 adults and tested three maintenance doses: 5mg, 10mg, and 15mg weekly over 72 weeks. Mean weight losses were 15.0%, 19.5%, and 20.9% respectively, all significantly greater than placebo (3.1%). These are population averages — roughly one-third of participants in each trial lost substantially more, and one-third lost substantially less. Factors associated with greater response include higher baseline weight, absence of type 2 diabetes, and consistent medication adherence. The calculator presents the trial mean as a benchmark, not a guarantee, and individual results will vary based on many factors the model cannot observe.
Dose Titration and the Escalation Period
In the STEP 1 extension, participants discontinued semaglutide and lifestyle support after 68 weeks. Over the following 52 weeks, the extension group regained about two-thirds of its prior weight loss. This was the STEP 1 extension, not the STEP 4 randomized-withdrawal trial. Outcomes in a selected trial follow-up group do not forecast an individual response after stopping treatment.
What Happens When You Stop
GLP-1 medications manage obesity as a chronic condition — much like antihypertensives manage blood pressure — rather than curing it permanently. When the medication is discontinued, the appetite-suppressing hormonal signal disappears and appetite returns to pre-treatment levels. The STEP 4 trial, a randomized controlled study of semaglutide withdrawal, showed that participants who stopped semaglutide after 20 weeks regained two-thirds of their lost weight within 52 weeks, while those who continued lost an additional 7.9%. The SURMOUNT-4 trial found similar weight regain after tirzepatide discontinuation. This pharmacological reality does not mean GLP-1 medications are without value for people who stop — even partial sustained weight loss has meaningful health benefits — but it does establish that ongoing treatment is typically required to maintain the full weight-loss effect. Some patients maintain a portion of their weight loss through behavioral habits established during treatment; the degree of regain varies widely. Physicians and patients should discuss long-term treatment plans, including strategies to manage the natural weight regain that typically follows discontinuation.
Appropriate Use and Limitations of This Calculator
This calculator is an educational tool that applies clinical trial average weight-loss percentages to your starting weight and selected medication to project a plausible outcome over the trial follow-up period. It does not account for individual variation in drug response, adherence, or lifestyle factors, all of which substantially affect real-world outcomes. Clinical trial participants received consistent medication support, regular check-ins, and lifestyle counseling — conditions that may differ from real-world treatment. The calculator also does not model side effects, contraindications, or medical suitability. GLP-1 receptor agonists are prescription medications with specific indications: they are approved for adults with BMI of 30 or higher, or BMI of 27 or higher with a weight-related condition such as type 2 diabetes, hypertension, or dyslipidemia. They are contraindicated in patients with a personal or family history of medullary thyroid carcinoma or multiple endocrine neoplasia syndrome type 2. Use this calculator to orient your expectations before a clinical conversation, not as a substitute for it.