For new 2026 residential installations, both federal 25C and 25D credits are $0: eligibility ended December 31, 2025, including geothermal, solar and batteries. Enter only confirmed state, utility or HEAR rebates. Historical or commercial scenarios require separately verified eligibility.
Why a heat pump usually wins — and sometimes doesn't
A furnace turns fuel into heat at best 1-to-1; an 82% furnace delivers 0.82 units of heat per unit of fuel energy. A heat pump doesn't make heat, it moves it from outdoor air (or the ground) into your home, delivering 2.5–3.5 units of heat per unit of electricity. That multiplier is the COP, and it's why a heat pump beats oil and propane comfortably and usually beats gas.
The exception is cheap natural gas paired with pricey electricity. At around $0.17/kWh and average gas prices, a heat pump can cost a little more to run than a gas furnace. A neutral tool should tell you that rather than assume savings — which is exactly why the default gas case here shows gas slightly ahead, while oil, propane, and electric resistance show clear wins.
Which incentives survive into 2026
Cold climates and when dual-fuel makes sense
A heat pump's COP falls as the outdoor temperature drops, so in cold zones the seasonal average is lower and running cost is higher. This tool derates the COP by climate zone and reports a dual-fuel crossover temperature — the point below which your existing fuel becomes cheaper per unit of heat.
When that crossover sits well above the coldest weather (often the case switching from cheap gas), a dual-fuel (hybrid) system that runs the heat pump in mild weather and the furnace on the coldest nights is usually the lowest-cost, most-reliable setup. Geothermal sidesteps the problem: ground temperature barely changes, so its COP stays near 3.2 all winter with no crossover to worry about. This is a planning estimate, not a Manual J load calculation — get a contractor's load calc and a firm quote, and confirm current incentive rules, before deciding.