The 2026 Trustees Report assumes a 2.4% COLA effective in December 2027, reflected in payments beginning January 2028. It also estimates a $198,900 wage base for 2028. These are agency assumptions, not final announcements.
Benefit and earnings-limit estimates
| Item | 2026 confirmed comparison | 2028 agency estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Wage base for Social Security tax | $184,500 | $198,900 |
| Earnings-test limit before FRA year | $24,480 | $26,400 |
| Earnings-test limit in FRA year | $65,160 | $70,200 |
| COLA reflected in January payments | 2.8% in January 2026 | 2.4% assumption for January 2028 |
COLA uses a CPI-W comparison; the wage base and earnings-test limits use wage-indexing rules. A 2.4% COLA does not mean every Social Security dollar threshold rises 2.4%. The agency’s low-cost and high-cost alternatives also differ from its intermediate assumptions.
Worked example: a $2,000 gross monthly benefit
If a person’s gross monthly benefit immediately before the adjustment were $2,000, a 2.4% illustrative increase would be $48, producing $2,048 before applicable benefit rounding and deductions. That is a $576 full-year gross increase if the same amount applied for all 12 months.
The deposit may increase by less because Medicare premiums, withholding or other deductions can change. This arithmetic does not calculate a new claimant’s benefit from their earnings record, nor does it establish a maximum benefit. Use your SSA record for an individualized estimate and compare gross benefits separately from net deposits.
Working before full retirement age
Using the $26,400 estimate, someone below full retirement age for all of 2028 who earns $30,000 would be $3,600 over the annual earnings-test amount. The general $1 withheld for every $2 over the limit would imply $1,800 of withholding, subject to special first-year and other rules.
The year a person reaches full retirement age uses the higher annual limit and a different $1-for-$3 rule, counting earnings before the month of reaching FRA. From that month onward, the retirement earnings test no longer applies. Withholding under the earnings test is distinct from income tax on benefits.
Retirement age and taxable benefits are different rules
Under current law full retirement age is 67 for people born in 1960 or later. Claiming earlier reduces the monthly benefit; delaying beyond FRA can earn credits up to age 70. The 2028 calendar year by itself does not determine someone’s claiming adjustment.
Federal taxation of benefits uses combined-income rules and fixed thresholds. Those thresholds are not automatically indexed by the COLA. Evaluate wages, pensions, investment income and filing status separately when estimating how much of a benefit could be taxable.
Method, assumptions and release timing
Use SSA Table V.C1 intermediate assumptions. The December 2027 COLA corresponds to January 2028 payments; the 2028 row supplies the wage base and annual earnings-test limits. No editorial 3% uplift is applied.
Final COLA for January 2028 payments and 2028 program limits are normally announced in October 2027.
Primary sources: 2026 Trustees Report, Table V.C1 — intermediate assumptions
Frequently asked questions
Why does the COLA use the December 2027 row?
SSA describes the adjustment by its effective December month; the corresponding retirement benefit payments generally begin in January 2028. The wage-base and earnings-limit columns use their calendar-year rows instead.
Is the 2.4% COLA guaranteed?
No. It is the Trustees’ intermediate assumption. The actual adjustment depends on measured CPI-W and the official SSA announcement.
Will my bank deposit rise by exactly the COLA?
Not necessarily. Medicare premiums, withholding, benefit rounding and other deductions can change the net deposit.
Can I use these estimates to file or set a contribution limit?
No. These tables illustrate planning assumptions. Use the final agency publication and the rules for the applicable year before filing, funding an account or changing payroll. A linked calculator may use a different year.
Explore a related calculator
Social Security calculator. Check the calculator’s supported year and assumptions; it may use a different year from this planning reference.