Use the three estimates as separate planning aids. Average grade cannot represent every climb or descent, and neither pace heuristic accounts for terrain, fatigue, weather, or individual fitness.
Linear grade heuristic
The active grade model multiplies flat pace by 1 + 0.033 × grade% uphill. Downhill it uses max(0.85, 1 − 0.015 × |grade%|). Grade is entered in percentage points. This simple estimator does not model braking on steep descents.
Minetti et al. (2002) published separate walking and running fits. This is their running-cost polynomial, shown for reference; the calculator uses the linear heuristic instead.
Altitude pace heuristic
Convert altitude to meters. The model adds 1% to pace per 100 m above 1,500 m, then multiplies sea-level pace by 1 + percentage/100. This is a planning assumption, not a measured VO₂max reduction; acclimatization is not modeled.
Race Strategy for Hilly Courses
Use the three estimates as separate planning aids. Average grade cannot represent every climb or descent, and neither pace heuristic accounts for terrain, fatigue, weather, or individual fitness.
Naismith uses a fixed hiking speed of 5 km/h. The running heuristic uses your entered flat pace and average grade. Neither estimate models technical terrain or your individual fitness.