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Investment ROI Calculator

ROI · CAGR · IRR · MOIC · Scenario Analysis · Wealth Projector — the most complete free investment return tool available.

Quick Presets
Yrs
Mos
Contributions
Realism Settings
%
%
%
⚠ High leverage amplifies losses. A 50%+ drawdown could trigger a margin call.
💾 Saved Scenarios 0
No saved scenarios yet.
Final Portfolio Value
$15,000
+$5,000 📈 vs benchmark
1.5×
Total ROI i
50.00%
CAGR i
8.45%
Net Profit
$5,000
Total Invested
$10,000
IRR i
8.45%
MOIC i
Yr 3
Investment Health Score
ROI = (FV−P) ÷ P CAGR = (FV/PV)^(1/t)−1 FV = P(1+r)^t

How fees, taxes, and inflation reduce your gross gain to a real net value.

Calculate to see the waterfall breakdown
Period Contributions Returns Nominal Value Real Value Cumul. ROI
📊 Investment B
Final Value B
CAGR B
Net Profit B
MOIC B

Market Scenario Analysis

How your investment performs in bear, base, and bull market conditions (±30% return adjustment).

🐻 Bear Case
Return − 30%
Final Value
CAGR
Net Profit
Total ROI
📊 Base Case
Your Input
Final Value
CAGR
Net Profit
Total ROI
🐂 Bull Case
Return + 30%
Final Value
CAGR
Net Profit
Total ROI

Tax Optimization

Short-term vs long-term capital gains tax impact on your profit. Holding >1 year often saves thousands.

Your Income Bracket
Gross Profit
STCG Rate (ordinary)
LTCG Rate (>1 year)
Tax Comparison
STCG Tax Owed
LTCG Tax Owed
After-Tax (STCG)
After-Tax (LTCG)
Select your bracket to see savings

Monte Carlo Simulation

500 randomized return scenarios using log-normal distribution around your expected rate. Confidence bands show the realistic range of outcomes.

S&P 500 ≈ 15%  |  Crypto ≈ 60%  |  Bonds ≈ 6%

Return Rate × Duration Sensitivity Matrix

Final portfolio value across different annual return rates and holding periods. Click any cell to drill into that scenario.

Historical "What Would It Be Worth?"

Curious what $10,000 in the S&P 500 in 1990 is worth today? Use real historical CAGR data.

Value Today
Historical CAGR
Annualised
Inflation-Adj. Value
2% avg. inflation

Asset Class Comparison

Same capital, same duration — how would it grow across major asset classes?

Dollar-Cost Averaging vs Lump Sum

Same total capital — invested all at once on Day 1 vs spread equally over 12 months.

Lump Sum
Invest all capital on Day 1
vs
DCA (12 months)
Equal instalments over first year

Historical Crash Impact

How major market crashes would affect your current portfolio value — and how long to recover at your current return rate.

Crash Event Market Drop Your Loss Value After Crash Years to Recover Recovery Year

Recovery assumes your current CAGR resumes immediately after the crash.

Break-Even Analysis

When does cumulative investment growth overcome fees and when do returns exceed your initial capital?

Fee Break-Even
Years until gains exceed total fees paid
Principal Recovery
Years until net returns exceed your initial investment

Edit Inputs

30-Year Wealth Projection

Your investment trajectory vs major asset class benchmarks over a 30-year horizon.

Wealth Milestones

Target Year Value at Year

FIRE Milestones

Years until your investment reaches key financial independence targets at current rate.

$500,000 years
$1,000,000 years
$2,000,000 years
Advanced FIRE Variants
Coast FIRE
Needed now to coast to $1M by 65
Barista FIRE
Portfolio covering 70% of expenses

Contribution Ladder

Impact of different monthly contribution levels on your final wealth at 10 and 30 years (at current return rate).

Monthly Contribution 10-Year Value 30-Year Value 30yr Gain vs $0

Sequence of Returns Risk

For retirement withdrawals, the order of returns matters enormously. Early losses are devastating; early gains provide a cushion. Based on 1,000 simulated paths.

Opportunity Cost Analysis

What if you had invested the same capital in S&P 500, Real Estate, or Bonds instead? See what you gained or gave up.

S&P 500 (10%)
Real Estate (8%)
Bonds (4%)

HOW TO USE

01

Choose Mode & Preset

Select "Analyze Past" to calculate historical ROI from a known final value, or "Project Future" to forecast with an expected return rate. Use presets for instant benchmarks like the S&P 500.

02

Tune Realism Settings

Open Realism Settings to add inflation adjustment, tax drag, and fee drag. These hidden costs can cut real returns by 30–50% over a decade — see exactly how much with the Erosion tab.

03

Explore Scenarios & Milestones

Switch to Scenario Analysis to stress-test returns, then use Wealth Projector to see when you hit $500k, $1M, or your custom FIRE target. Export any view as CSV.

FAQ

How is total ROI calculated?

ROI = (Final Value − Initial Investment) ÷ Initial Investment × 100. It measures total percentage gain regardless of time. A 50% ROI over 1 year is far better than 50% over 10 years — that's why CAGR matters more for comparison.

What is CAGR and why is it the best return metric?

CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) = (FV/PV)^(1/years) − 1. It smooths out the path of returns into a single annual percentage, making investments of different durations directly comparable. Always compare investments using CAGR, not total ROI.

When should I use IRR instead of CAGR?

Use IRR when there are multiple cash flows at irregular times — like monthly contributions, partial withdrawals, or real estate rental income. IRR finds the rate at which the net present value of all cash flows equals zero, making it more precise than CAGR for these scenarios.

What is MOIC and who uses it?

MOIC (Multiple on Invested Capital) = Final Value ÷ Total Invested Capital. A 3.0× MOIC means you tripled your money. Venture capital and private equity firms commonly use MOIC alongside IRR because it shows raw money-on-money return without time weighting.

How does inflation impact my real return?

Inflation erodes purchasing power. Real Return ≈ (1 + Nominal) / (1 + Inflation) − 1 (Fisher Equation). A 10% nominal return with 3% inflation yields only ~6.8% real return. Over 30 years, this difference is enormous — enable Inflation in Realism Settings to see the erosion chart.

Why is DCA vs Lump Sum important?

In steadily rising markets, lump sum investing typically wins because your capital compounds for longer. In volatile markets, DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging) reduces timing risk by spreading purchases. The Scenario Analysis tab shows the mathematical difference for your specific situation.

How do fees affect long-term wealth?

A 1% annual fee on $100k growing at 8% for 30 years costs you ~$175k compared to a 0% fee fund. Fees compound against you just as returns compound for you. Even 0.5% differences in expense ratios matter enormously over multi-decade horizons.

What does the sensitivity matrix show?

The 5×5 matrix in Scenario Analysis shows your final portfolio value across 5 return rates (centered on yours, ±steps) and 5 holding durations. Green cells are better outcomes, red are worse. Your current scenario is outlined in green — it's the fastest way to visualize the return/time tradeoff.

How do you calculate ROI?

ROI (Return on Investment) is calculated as: ROI = (Net Profit / Total Investment) × 100%. For example, if you invest $10,000 and earn $12,500 back, your net profit is $2,500 and your ROI is 25%. CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) is more useful for multi-year comparisons.

Formulas & Methodology

Total ROI

ROI = ((Final Value − Initial Investment) ÷ Initial Investment) × 100

The simplest return metric. Measures total percentage gain but ignores time — a 100% ROI over 20 years is far less impressive than over 2 years.

CAGR (Annualized ROI)

CAGR = (Final Value ÷ Initial Investment)^(1/Years) − 1

The geometric mean annual return. CAGR is the gold standard for comparing investments of different durations and the single most important return metric.

IRR (Internal Rate of Return)

NPV = 0 = Σ(CF_t / (1+IRR)^t) — solved via Newton-Raphson iteration

The most accurate metric when cash flows vary over time. IRR finds the discount rate that makes all cash inflows and outflows cancel out to zero net present value.

Real (Inflation-Adjusted) Return

Real Return = (1 + Nominal) / (1 + Inflation Rate) − 1

The Fisher Equation gives the true increase in purchasing power. Always evaluate wealth growth in real terms to understand actual lifestyle improvement.

MOIC (Multiple on Invested Capital)

MOIC = Final Value ÷ Total Capital Invested

Shows how many times you multiplied your money. 1.0× = breakeven, 2.0× = doubled, 10.0× = 10-bagger. Commonly used in VC and private equity alongside IRR.

Key Terms

Alpha
Returns above a benchmark index. If your investment earns 12% while the S&P 500 earns 10%, you have 2% alpha. Negative alpha means a passive index fund would have outperformed.
Tax Drag
The compounding reduction in wealth caused by paying taxes on annual gains or dividends. At 25% capital gains tax, your effective compounding rate is reduced by 25% annually.
Expense Ratio
Annual fund management fee as a percentage of assets. Even 1% annually reduces a 30-year investment by ~25% compared to a 0% fee alternative due to compound drag.
DRIP
Dividend Reinvestment Plan — automatically reinvests dividends to buy more shares, accelerating compounding. Historically adds ~0.5–1.5% annually to total stock returns.
Leverage (Real Estate)
Using borrowed capital to amplify returns. A $300k property bought with $60k down (5:1 leverage) means a 10% property appreciation gives you ~50% cash-on-equity return.
FIRE Number
The portfolio value needed to retire — typically 25× annual expenses (4% safe withdrawal rate rule). The Wealth Projector shows how long to reach your personal FIRE target.

Worked Examples

Example 1: S&P 500 Index Fund (10 Years)

Scenario: $10,000 lump sum + $500/month for 10 years at 10% average return.

Total invested: $10,000 + $60,000 = $70,000. Final value: ~$129,000. CAGR on total capital: 6.3% (accounting for staged contributions). MOIC: 1.84×.

After 3% inflation & 15% tax: Real after-tax CAGR ≈ 5.2%. Final real value ~$105,000 in today's purchasing power.

Example 2: Real Estate (Leveraged)

Scenario: $300k property, $60k down payment (5:1 leverage), 6.5% mortgage, $1,500/month rent, $400 expenses, 7% appreciation for 5 years.

Property grows to: ~$421k. Equity built: ~$161k. Net rent collected: ~$33k. Total return on $60k equity: ~223%. CAGR on equity: ~26%/year — this is the power of leverage.

Example 3: Why CAGR Beats ROI for Comparison

Investment A: $10k → $20k in 5 years. ROI = 100%, CAGR = 14.87%.

Investment B: $10k → $30k in 10 years. ROI = 200%, CAGR = 11.61%.

Investment B has 2× the total ROI, but Investment A has 28% higher annual compounding — and reinvesting A for 10 years would yield $39k vs B's $30k. CAGR tells the real story.

Asset Class Historical Returns

Asset ClassAvg Annual ReturnTypical RiskBest For
S&P 500 Index~10% nominal / ~7% realModerate-HighLong-term wealth building
US Bonds (10yr)~4–5%LowCapital preservation, income
Real Estate (leveraged)~8–12% on equityModerateCash flow + appreciation
HYSA / CDs~4–5%Very LowEmergency fund, short-term
Gold~3% real long-termModerateInflation hedge, diversification
Bitcoin (BTC, since 2013)~50%+ (extreme volatility)Very HighHigh-risk speculative growth

Understanding Return on Investment

Why ROI Alone Isn't Enough

Return on Investment is the universal language of financial performance, but raw ROI is often misleading. A 200% ROI sounds incredible — but was it earned in 2 years or 20? Without annualizing returns using CAGR, you cannot compare investments fairly. The most successful investors think in CAGR, not total ROI.

The Hidden Cost Triad: Inflation, Taxes, and Fees

Gross returns are rarely what you actually keep. A fund returning 10% annually with a 1% expense ratio, 15% capital gains tax, and 3% inflation delivers only about 5.1% in real after-tax returns. Over 30 years, these three "silent killers" can reduce your real wealth by 50–60% compared to gross projections. Always model your net-of-everything returns.

Benchmark Comparison: Are You Actually Creating Alpha?

If your active investment strategy returns 8%/year while a passive S&P 500 index fund returns 10%, you're not just leaving money on the table — you're likely taking on more risk for less return. True alpha (outperformance above risk-adjusted benchmark) is remarkably rare even among professional fund managers. Use the benchmark comparison to keep yourself honest.

The Time-in-Market Advantage

Compounding rewards patience exponentially. At 10%/year, $10,000 grows to $25k in 10 years, $67k in 20 years, and $174k in 30 years. The last decade adds more absolute dollars than the first two decades combined. Starting earlier — even with smaller amounts — consistently beats waiting to invest larger sums later. The Wealth Projector's milestone table makes this concrete by showing exactly when you'll reach your goals.

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